Dear Neighbors,

Here is your Bellasera Market update for JUNE, 2012. 

FOR SALE

9

- Average Asking Price

$507,757

- Average Square Feet

2,386

- Average Asking Price per Sq. Foot

$214.76

- Average Days on Market

79

- SHORT SALES – LENDER OWNED

0

PENDING

1

- Average Asking Price

$599,900

- Average Square Feet

3,005

- Average Asking Price per Sq. Foot

$199.63

- Average Days on Market

152

- SHORT SALES – LENDER OWNED

0

SOLD*

12

- Average Sales Price

$549,741

- Sales Price to List Price

97%

- Average Square Feet

2,722

- Average Sales Price per Sq. Foot

$201.35

- Average Days on Market

69

- Lowest Sale Price

$318,000

- Highest Sale Price

$759,500

- SHORT SALES – LENDER OWNED

2

The attached spreadsheets shows the homes that are FOR SALE, PENDING, and SOLD by FLOORPLAN as well as CMA Maps for each. 

If you are considering selling your home, please contact us for a “Market Analysis” OR if you know someone who is looking to buy a home, please give them our name.  We have clients looking for homes in Bellasera – give us a call. We have sold 6 homes in Bellasera this year! 

We have a NEW listing – “7486 E. Visao Drive - Great Room Floorplan – 3 Bedrooms – 3.5 Baths – PLUS Office – Open Views - $599,000.  Click link to see photos and listing: 7486 E. Visao Drive

We get too much credit – seriously….   We have heard it said that we (Realtors) are responsible for the market – that it is our fault if the market is low or if it is too high.  If we had that much power, we would not be working right now!   For many reasons, other than our own, a home will sell below market due to the Seller’s motivation to get it sold OR it can sell much higher than market based on the home and a Buyer’s willingness to pay for it.  We have a stable market, we have low inventory, but we still have a variable market on what a home will sell for.  If the Buyer is paying cash or getting a loan that makes a difference as well – appraisers have been appraising homes low and we have to help them understand the market is changing!  Buyer and Sellers determine the market – Realtors follow the market based on supply and demand.

How low can we go??  The number of homes currently for sale in the Valley are:  12,969 - compared to May of 13,099. Compared to 2009 with 59,000 homes for sale, pretty low!

CHART COMPARISON: BELLASERA, TERRAVITA, WINFIELD

FOR SALE /

AVG. SQ FT

PENDING/

AVG. SQ. FT

TOTAL SOLD 2012 /

AVG. SQ. FT.

SOLD-SHORT SALE-LENDER OWNED

Bellasera (360 homes)

9

$214.76

1    

$199.63

12

$201.36

2

Terravita (1,380 homes)

32

$210.79

11

$202.62

53

$197.43

4

Winfield (511 homes)

(*Includes Custom Homes)

17

$208.84

7

$193.07

10

$196.06

(1 Custom)

1

(Data from the Arizona Regional MLS (FLEXMLS) and subject to change – Information as of 6/9/12).

Below is a chart that just includes the Zip Code of 85266:

85266 Zip Code

FOR SALE

 


153

PENDING

 


56

TOTAL SOLD 2012

 


184

SOLD

SHORT SALE-

LENDER OWNED

37

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

$281.99

$190.39

$186.58

$146.52

Market Summary

See attached reports:

Altos Research Summary – Scottsdale

**NEW** ARMLS STAT REPORT – JUNE 2012 (from the MLS)

NEWS ON THE HOUSING MARKET: (check out our website for “Housing Update”)

Go to:  www.joanwallacehomes.com or www.stevewallacehomes.com

CoreLogic: Phoenix leads the nation in home value gains A new report released today by CoreLogicCoreLogicLatest from The Business JournalsSummer storms could bring hefty losses to South Texas homes, study finds Dayton third nationally for home pricesBirmingham home prices stable in AprilFollow this companyshows home values in metro Phoenix and across the state are surging at the fastest rate in the country

Read ....

Home Prices Show Strongest Gain in 6 Years

The median price of an existing home climbed 10 percent to $177,400 from $161,100 in April 2011, the strongest year-to-year gain since January 2006.

Read ...

Fixed Rates Reach Record-Low Averages for 6th Consecutive Week

As the employment situation continues to raise concerns, fixed rates fell even lower, slipping yet again to new record-lows, according to a survey from Freddie Mac released Thursday..

Read ...

Home Price INCREASES In Hardest Hit Markets..Housing Rebound Near?

Home prices INCREASE in some of the hardest hit markets across the nation! Excluding distressed sales, prices rose 2.6 percent. Prices have not been up two months in a row since June 2010. Clearly the housing market has hit bottom and is now turning the corner.

Read ...

Pending Sales Data Shows the Sky is NOT Falling
After weeks of continuous good news about the housing market, the naysayers jumped all over this month’s Pending Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

Read ...

Report: Valley housing market continues recovery
A new housing report from ASU reports that the Valley housing market continues its recovery.

Read ...

Low Appraisals Continue to Thwart Deals 
Read ...

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Bellasera Market Update


Dear Neighbors,

Here is your Bellasera Market Update for MAY, 2012. 

FOR SALE

7

- Average Asking Price

$506,187

- Average Square Feet

2,422

- Average Asking Price per Sq. Foot

$209.83

- Average Days on Market

84

- SHORT SALES – LENDER OWNED

0

PENDING

6

- Average Asking Price

$551,166

- Average Square Feet

2,611

- Average Asking Price per Sq. Foot

$217.39

- Average Days on Market

67

- SHORT SALES – LENDER OWNED

0

SOLD*

6

- Average Sales Price

$548,316

- Sales Price to List Price

98%

- Average Square Feet

2,832

- Average Sales Price per Sq. Foot

$193.41

- Average Days on Market

69

- Lowest Sale Price

$318,000

- Highest Sale Price

$649,900

- SHORT SALES – LENDER OWNED

2

The attached spreadsheets shows the homes that are FOR SALE, PENDING, and SOLD by FLOORPLAN as well as CMA Maps for each.  If you are considering selling your home, please contact us for a “Market Analysis” OR if you know someone who is looking to buy a home, please give them our name.  We have clients looking for homes in Bellasera – give us a call.

The number of homes currently for sale in the Valley are:  13,099 - compared to April of 13,985. The available inventory of homes for sale continues to drop.  We have about a 1 1/2 month supply of homes to sell.  Out of 360 homes in Bellasera, only 7 are for sale – with 6 homes under contract.

CHART COMPARISON: BELLASERA, TERRAVITA, WINFIELD

FOR SALE /

AVG. SQ FT

PENDING/

AVG. SQ. FT

TOTAL SOLD 2012 /

AVG. SQ. FT.

SOLD-SHORT SALE-LENDER OWNED

Bellasera (360 homes)

7

$209.83

6    

$217.39

6

$193.41

2

Terravita (1,380 homes)

39

$211.69

22

$210.83

32

$195.01

3

Winfield (511 homes)

(*Includes Custom Homes)

22

$214.89

4

$190.88

6

$198.58(1 Custom)

1

(Data from the Arizona Regional MLS (FLEXMLS) and subject to change – Information as of 5/1/12).

Below is a chart that just includes the Zip Code of 85266:

85266 Zip Code

FOR SALE

 


162

PENDING

 


77

TOTAL SOLD 2012

 


130

SOLD

SHORT SALE-

LENDER OWNED

33

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

$281.99

$188.35

$183.75

$142.64

Market Summary

See attached report – Altos Research Summary - Scottsdale

NEWS ON THE HOUSING MARKET: (check out our website for “Housing Update”)

Go to:  www.joanwallacehomes.com or www.stevewallacehomes.com

ASU real estate expert Michael Orr: Arizona a very volatile market
Read article - Phoenix Business Journal

Bidding Wars Catch Buyers Off-Guard
Read article - Realtor Magazine

Phoenix-area home prices up 20% in past 12 months
Home prices are surging in metro Phoenix, climbing 8% in March alone and 20% in the past 12 months. 

Read articleazcentral.com

Fed Renews Vow to Keep Interest Rates Low
Read article - Realtor Magazine

Stunned Home Buyers Find the Bidding Wars Are Back
Read article - Wall St. Journal

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Dear Neighbors,

Here is your Bellasera Market Update for APRIL, 2012. 

FOR SALE

11

- Average Asking Price

$509,801

- Average Square Feet

2,4216

- Average Asking Price per Sq. Foot

$212.20

- Average Days on Market

55

- SHORT SALES – LENDER OWNED

0

PENDING

2

- Average Asking Price

$639,500

- Average Square Feet

2,995

- Average Asking Price per Sq. Foot

$226.37

- Average Days on Market

831

- SHORT SALES – LENDER OWNED

0

SOLD*

6

- Average Sales Price

$548,316

- Sales Price to List Price

98%

- Average Square Feet

2,832

- Average Sales Price per Sq. Foot

$193.41

- Average Days on Market

69

- Lowest Sale Price

$318,000

- Highest Sale Price

$649,900

- SHORT SALES – LENDER OWNED

2

 

The attached spreadsheets shows the homes that are FOR SALE, PENDING, and SOLD by FLOORPLAN as well as CMA Maps for each.  If you are considering selling your home, please contact us for a “Market Analysis” OR if you know someone who is looking to buy a home, please give them our name.  We have clients looking for homes in Bellasera – give us a call.

The number of homes currently for sale in the Valley are:  13,985 - compared to March of 16,098. In 2009, there were 56,000 homes for sale.  We are back down to 2003 and 2004 levels.  As listing / selling agents, it is difficult now to find homes for our buyers.

CHART COMPARISON: BELLASERA, TERRAVITA, WINFIELD

FOR SALE /

AVG. SQ FT

PENDING/

AVG. SQ. FT

TOTAL SOLD 2012 /

AVG. SQ. FT.

SOLD-SHORT SALE-LENDER OWNED

Bellasera (360 homes)

11

$212.20

2     

$226.37

6

$193.41

2

Terravita (1,380 homes)

44

$216.84

20

$199.97

22

$195.03

3

Winfield (511 homes)

(*Includes Custom Homes)

22

$214.89

2

$202.32

5

$203.31(1 Custom)

1

(Data from the Arizona Regional MLS (FLEXMLS) and subject to change – Information as of 4/7/12).


Below is a chart that just includes the Zip Code of 85266:

85266 Zip Code

FOR SALE

 


183

PENDING

 


68

TOTAL SOLD 2012

 


101

SOLD

SHORT SALE-

LENDER OWNED

31

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

$272.89

$180.37

$183.37

$147.17

 

Market Summary

See attached report – Altos Research Summary - Scottsdale

NEWS ON THE HOUSING MARKET: (check out our website for “Housing Update”)

Go to:  www.joanwallacehomes.com or www.stevewallacehomes.com


Housing comeback continues with 22% jump in March sales
Home sales shot up 22.3 percent in March as increasingly confident buyers rushed to snap up houses in the peak buying season. Read More ...

The Republic, March 31 - Phoenix-area home prices headed upward
Home prices are climbing in metro Phoenix faster than they have since the housing boom.
Read More ...

 

Housing Is ‘Awakening From Hibernation,’ Freddie Says

Daily Real Estate News | Thursday, March 29, 2012

An improving economy is contributing to a gradual rebound in home prices across the country, according to mortgage giant Freddie Mac’s 2012 Economic Outlook report, released Wednesday. But there is still a way to go in the road to recovery for the housing market, the report noted.   

Read More ...

 

Agents Try to Find Work-Outs After Appraisals
If an appraisal comes in 10% lower than the agreed-upon sales price, a bank will likely only agree to finance the lower value.  This means either a buyer must make up the difference, a seller must come down on price, or the deal falls apart.  In some cases, agents have been successful in helping their clients get an adjustment on an appraisal, particularly when they can show that the comparable sales used were not good matches.  Most often, to save the deal, however, agents are finding it takes renegotiating the sales price.
Read More ... - Realtor Magazine

Blinklist!Blogmarks!BlinkBits!Ask!

Dear Neighbors,

Here is your Bellasera Market update for MARCH, 2012. 

FOR SALE

10

- Average Asking Price

$592,620

- Average Square Feet

2,816

- Average Asking Price per Sq. Foot

$211.07

- Average Days on Market

80

- SHORT SALES – LENDER OWNED

1

PENDING

4

- Average Asking Price

$522,475

- Average Square Feet

2,792

- Average Asking Price per Sq. Foot

$193.98

- Average Days on Market

61

- SHORT SALES – LENDER OWNED

2

SOLD*

2

- Average Sales Price

$600,000

- Sales Price to List Price

97%

- Average Square Feet

2,910

- Average Sales Price per Sq. Foot

$200.93

- Average Days on Market

70

- Lowest Sale Price

$560,000

- Highest Sale Price

$610,000

- SHORT SALES – LENDER OWNED

0

 

The attached spreadsheets shows the homes that are FOR SALE, PENDING, and SOLD by FLOORPLAN as well as CMA Maps for each.  If you are considering selling your home, please contact us for a “Market Analysis” OR if you know someone who is looking to buy a home, please give them our name.  We have clients looking for homes in Bellasera – give us a call.


CHART COMPARISON: BELLASERA, TERRAVITA, WINFIELD

FOR SALE /

AVG. SQ FT

PENDING/

AVG. SQ. FT

TOTAL SOLD 2012 /

AVG. SQ. FT.

SOLD-SHORT SALE-LENDER OWNED

Bellasera (360 homes)

10

$211.07

4     

$193.98

2

$200.93

0

Terravita (1,380 homes)

56

$216.71

12

$197.74

12

$197.74

2

Winfield (511 homes)

(*Includes Custom Homes)

29

$222.71

5

$186.84

2

$219.92(1 Custom)

0

 

(Data from the Arizona Regional MLS (FLEXMLS) and subject to change – Information as of 2/29/12).

The number of homes currently for sale in the Valley are:  16,098 - compared to January’s 17,325. It is becoming more of a Seller’s market with the low inventory of homes for sale.  Finally good news in the “news” that the Valley of the Sun’s housing market is showing an upturn and performed better over the last several than other metropolitan cities.

Below is a chart that just includes the Zip Code of 85266:


85266 Zip Code

FOR SALE

202

PENDING

63

TOTAL SOLD 2012

51

SOLD

SHORT SALE-

LENDER OWNED

15

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

$267.87

$182.06

$182.49

$140.64

 

Market Summary

See attached report – Altos Research Summary - Scottsdale

NEWS ON THE HOUSING MARKET: (check out our website for “Housing Update”)

Go to:  www.joanwallacehomes.com or www.stevewallacehomes.com

Case-Shiller: Phoenix Home Prices Leveling Off

Phoenix-area home prices declined 1.2% at the beginning of 2012 as compared with a year earlier, according to information released today by S&P/Case-Shiller.  Read more ...

Realty Times - Housing Reports Show Improvement as Low Mortgage Rates Continue

Housing reports continue to show improvement at the same time that low mortgage rates continue to remain intact.
Read more ...

Realtor Magazine  - Rents Keep Rising as Demand Soars

Rents nationwide continue to be on the rise, increasing 2.4 percent in January compared to a year earlier, according to new data released by the Labor Department.
Read more ...

East Valley Tribune Report - Banks more likely to do short sales

A report out last week by Grand Canyon Title Agency shows banks were more likely do a short-sale for a distressed property in 2011 than a foreclosure.
Read more ...

Warren Buffett Says He’d Buy a Couple Hundred Thousand Homes

Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, said yesterday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that buying single-family homes is such a great investment right now, if it were practical, he’d buy a couple hundred thousand of them.


Blinklist!Blogmarks!BlinkBits!Ask!

Dear Neighbors – HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Here is your Bellasera Market update for JANUARY, 2012. 

FOR SALE

9

- Average Asking Price

$614,311

- Average Square Feet

2,889

- Average Asking Price per Sq. Foot

$213.39

- Average Days on Market

261

- SHORT SALES – LENDER OWNED

2

PENDING

1

- Average Asking Price

$625,000

- Average Square Feet

3,005

- Average Asking Price per Sq. Foot

$207.99

- Average Days on Market

7

- SHORT SALES – LENDER OWNED

0

SOLD*

19

- Average Sales Price

$465,374

- Sales Price to List Price

95%

- Average Square Feet

2,329

- Average Sales Price per Sq. Foot

$190.29

- Average Days on Market

139

- Lowest Sale Price

$281,000

- Highest Sale Price

$590,000

- SHORT SALES – LENDER OWNED

5

The attached spreadsheets shows the homes that are FOR SALE, PENDING, and SOLD by FLOORPLAN as well as CMA Maps for each.  If you are considering selling your home, please contact us for a “Market Analysis” OR if you know someone who is looking to buy a home, please give them our name.

CHART COMPARISON: BELLASERA, TERRAVITA, WINFIELD

FOR SALE /

AVG. SQ FT

PENDING/

AVG. SQ. FT

TOTAL SOLD 2011 /

AVG. SQ. FT.

SOLD-SHORT SALE-LENDER OWNED

Bellasera (360 homes)

9

$213.39

1     

$207.99

19

$190.29

5

Terravita (1,380 homes)

47

$215.90

7

$217.13

76

$187.64

12

Winfield (511 homes)

(*Includes Custom Homes)

19

$221.11

4

$281.52

27

$169.89

5

(Data from the Arizona Regional MLS (FLEXMLS) and subject to change – Information as of 1/7/12).

The number of homes currently for sale in the Valley are:  18,565 - compared to December’s 19,395. There is less and less inventory – which is good for Sellers not for Buyers J.  Buyers are still uneasy about the market, but pending home sales have risen slightly.

Below is a chart that just includes the Zip Code of 85266:

85266 Zip Code

FOR SALE

 


188

PENDING

 


46

TOTAL SOLD 2011

 


375

SOLD

SHORT SALE-

LENDER OWNED

130

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

$271.89

$178.07

$168.85

$143.85

Market Summary

See attached report – Altos Research Summary - Scottsdale

NEWS ON THE HOUSING MARKET: (check out our website for “Housing Update”)

Go to:  www.joanwallacehomes.com or www.stevewallacehomes.com

FROM NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS:

NAR released its pending home sales index figure last week, and for the second month in a row, the index is up. What's more, the index has broken 100. That's significant because the only other time the index has hit 100 in recent years is when the home buyer tax credit was available. "It is the natural, organic power of great affordability conditions and job creation that is bringing the index level up," says NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "This is a very encouraging sign."

Thirty-Year Fixed-Rate Matches All-Time Low

Fixed mortgage rates started the year at or near their all-time record lows. Data from Freddie Mac shows the interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 3.91 percent for the week ending January 5, 2012, matching the record low set just two weeks earlier. This marks the fifth consecutive week the 30-year rate has come in below the 4.00 percent mark. The 15-year fixed-rate is averaging 3.23 percent, just two basis points above its all-time low hit in December. Read More...

Hear more from Lawrence Yun on trends in housing data and sales >

How the U.S. economy, Americans fared in 2011

From the jobless rate to a discouraging housing market and an aggravated lot of indebted college graduates, the year's defining economic stories kept a downbeat theme. Watch the video by clicking link..

Read More...

 

ASU W.P. Carey, January 5 - At Least it's a Recovery


The fourth quarter Greater Phoenix Blue Chip Real Estate Consensus reaffirms that the panel believes 2010 was the bottom of the housing market in terms of permits. While single family permits are expected to be up only modestly in 2011 to 7,200 versus 6,800 in 2010, expectations are that 2012 will improve to more than 10,000 units and in 2013 we?ll enjoy 17,000 units permitted in the Greater Phoenix area.
Read More...

Kiplinger – What’s Ahead for Home Prices in 2012


The median home price in the U.S. has plunged nearly 40% in a little over five years, but the worst is definitely over: The market has finally wrung out the last excess valuations born of the housing bubble. Before you break out the party hats, note that this doesn’t mean prices across the nation are poised to rebound anytime soon.

Read More...

Blinklist!Blogmarks!BlinkBits!Ask!

Dear Neighbors,

Here is your Bellasera Market update for DECEMBER, 2011.

 

FOR SALE

8

- Average Asking Price

$649,000

- Average Square Feet

3,037

- Average Asking Price per Sq. Foot

$213.94

- Average Days on Market

289

- SHORT SALES – LENDER OWNED

3

PENDING

3

- Average Asking Price

$458,300

- Average Square Feet

2,179

- Average Asking Price per Sq. Foot

$210.68

- Average Days on Market

110

- SHORT SALES – LENDER OWNED

0

SOLD*

17

- Average Sales Price

$476,012

- Sales Price to List Price

95%

- Average Square Feet

2,395

- Average Sales Price per Sq. Foot

$189.42

- Average Days on Market

137

- Lowest Sale Price

$281,000

- Highest Sale Price

$590,000

- SHORT SALES – LENDER OWNED

5


 

The attached spreadsheets shows the homes that are FOR SALE, PENDING, and SOLD by FLOORPLAN as well as CMA Maps for each.

CHART COMPARISON: BELLASERA, TERRAVITA, WINFIELD


FOR SALE /

AVG. SQ FT

PENDING/

AVG. SQ. FT

SOLD 2010 /

AVG. SQ. FT.

SOLD-SHORT SALE-LENDER OWNED

Bellasera (360 homes)

8

$213.94

3     

$210.68

17

$189.42

5

Terravita (1,380 homes)

46

$216.70

8

$213.98

68

$186.45

11

Winfield (511 homes)

(*Includes Custom Homes)

16

$226.49

2

$214.67

26

$173.98

5

(Data from the Arizona Regional MLS (FLEXMLS) and subject to change – Information as of 12/4/11).

 

BELLASERA

The number of homes currently for sale in the Valley are:  19,395 - compared to November’s 19,606.

Bellasera has 3 homes under contract – that is great news!  If they all close this month, 20 homes will have sold in 2011.  If you are considering selling your home, please contact us for a “Market Analysis” OR if you know someone who is looking to buy a home, please give them our name.

Below is a chart that just includes the Zip Code of 85266:

85266 Zip Code

FOR SALE

 


183

PENDING

 


47

SOLD 2011

 


353

SOLD

SHORT SALE-

LENDER OWNED

126

Average Price

Per Sq. Ft.

$270.49

$175.63

$178.45

$149.35

See attached chart on monthly sales from The Cromford Report for our zip code - 85266

Market Summary

See attached report – Altos Research Summary - Scottsdale

From The Cromford Report:

Market Summary for the Beginning of December

Most of the supply and demand numbers were rather boring in November. All the excitement was concentrated in the pricing action. In this, October and November have been the opposite of the previous 12 months where there were massive changes taking place in supply but not much of interest going on in pricing.

To start with, here is the ARMLS data across all areas and types:

Sales per Month: 7,230 in November - down 5% from October but up 8% from this time last year.

Active Listings (including Active With Contingency-there is a contract on the home, but based on a contingency): 26,655 on December 1 - down 1.5% from November 1 and down 41% from this time last year.

Active Listings (excluding AWC): 19,377 on December 1 - down 1% from November 1 and down 50% from this time last year.

Pending Sales: 10,171 on December 1, down 3% from November 1, but up 2% compared with this time last year.

Listing Success Rate: 75.3% on December 1 - down slightly from 76.0% on November 1 but up significantly from 60.4% on December 1, 2010.

Contract Ratio: 90.1 on December 1, down slightly from 91.9 on November 1 but up strongly from 40.1 last year at this time.

Days Inventory: 96 on December 1, down from 98 on November 1 but dramatically down from 184 at this time last year

Cromford Market Index™: 155.8 on December 1, the same as on November 1 but far above the 91.0 we saw on December 1, 2010.

Sales Price as a Percentage of List: 96.67% on December 1, exactly the same as on November 1 but up from 95.59% on December 1, 2010

Thus we see evidence of a huge improvement in the market balance compared with December 2010 but little if any change between last month and now. The Cromford Demand Index™ and Cromford Supply Index™ are both flat-lining, meaning that supply remains low and steady and demand remains high and steady.

So let us look at where the action is:

Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft. - $83.58 in November - up 3.1% over the month before and up 0.9% over last year at this time. It is also up 6.5% compared with the extreme low point measured on September 15

Monthly Median Sales Price - $115,000 in November, up from $112,199 in October and the same as we saw in November 2010.

3.1% in a single month is a pretty strong bounce for $/SF so it is worth looking into exactly how and why this happened. If we look at the details we find:

  • Greater Phoenix REOs are up 2.2%
  • Greater Phoenix Short sales & Pre-foreclosures are down 4.1%
  • Greater Phoenix Normal listings are up 3.1%

So we see that short sales and foreclosures, while booming in sales volume and success, have not been going up in price. In fact they have been falling faster than the other two groups are rising. The gap between the average $/SF for REOs and short sales has never been closer. We also see that overall pricing has improved faster than any of the three groups. This may seem paradoxical at first but the explanation is quite simple. REOs have the cheapest pricing and their sales volume is declining fast due to the reduction in supply. Normal listings are growing market share and have the highest pricing. The change in the mix has a huge effect on the overall average. This is the exact opposite of what happened in 2008 when prices tanked at unprecedented rates.

We can say on balance that sales pricing is back to where it was last year at this time and we can also reasonably expect to see positive appreciation rates for the market as a whole for at least the next 4 months. This is easy to predict because last year we had a gently declining pending listing $/SF whereas now pending $/SF figures are headed upwards.

This positive appreciation is not spread evenly around. The following cities currently show higher prices than at this time last year (measured by average monthly sales $/SF):

  • Fountain Hills (14.8%)
  • Paradise valley (11.9%)
  • Casa Grande (7.6%)
  • Sun City (7.1%)
  • Buckeye (5.3%)
  • Maricopa (3.2%)
  • Gold Canyon (2.7%)
  • Arizona City (1.9%)
  • Phoenix (1.3%)
  • Queen Creek / San Tan Valley (1.2%)
  • El Mirage (0.8%)
  • Cave Creek (0.4%)

The following are still in negative territory:

  • Sun Lakes (-14.3%)
  • Litchfield Park (-8.5%)
  • Goodyear (-7.7%)
  • Tolleson (6.8%)
  • Avondale (-6.3%)
  • Surprise (5.6%)
  • Peoria (-5.6%)
  • Sun City West (5.3%)
  • Mesa (-4.2%)
  • Anthem (-4.1%)
  • Glendale (-3.8%)
  • Apache Junction (-3.4%)
  • Laveen (-3.0%)
  • Gilbert (-2.8%)
  • Chandler (-2.6%)
  • Tempe (-0.9%)
  • Scottsdale (-0.1%)

Most of the second list are seeing an upward trend in the last two months but are still down compared with November 2010.

For the months of July through October, we saw trustee sales volumes fall while new notices stayed fairly flat. The opposite occurred in November. Foreclosure notice started to fall off again while trustee sales popped up slightly, due to the large batch of Recontrust (Bank of America) notices that were issued in August against Countrywide originated loans. These became ripe for trustees to sell during November. The longer term trend for both is still downward and the pending foreclosure count has started to fall fast again having stabilized for several months. We believe that there will be relatively few REOs generated from now on. Most of the foreclosure tsunami is past us, perhaps 80%. Those foreclosure notice still to come will generate a lot of short sales and third party purchases at the foreclosure auction, but relatively few homes will revert to the beneficiaries. We have probably already seen over 90% of the REOs that are to be created by the 2004-2006 real estate bubble and fewer than 10% are yet to come.

NEWS ON THE HOUSING MARKET: (check out our website for “Housing Update”)

Go to:  www.joanwallacehomes.com or www.stevewallacehomes.com

Phoenix New Home Sales Begin to Stablize Read More...

Existing-Home Sales Rise Unexpectedly

Sales of previously owned homes got an unexpected boost last month while the number of homes on the market continued to decline, according to data just released by the National Association of Realtors.           Read More...

Investors Increase Market Share, Especially in Distressed Sector

Investors are making up an increasing share of home purchase transactions, especially in the distressed sector, according to an industry report. In October, investor purchases accounted for 22.3 percent of transactions, in keeping with the last three months during which the rate has remained above 20 percent. At the same time, distressed property transactions grew to take up a larger portion of the market. Investors are seeing profit potential in homes that may need repair because rents are steadily rising.  Read More...

Is This The Beginning Of The End Of The Housing Bust?
Housing construction is a long leading indicator, indeed along with interest rates probably the most important one. So those commentators who say that we won't get housing improvement until we have job improvement have causation exactly backwards.
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Due Mortgages = 6,298,000
There were 6,298,000 mortgages going unpaid in the United States as of the end of October, according to Lender Processing Services (LPS).
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National Delinquency Rate Falls to Lowest Level in Three Years: MBA
Industry data released Thursday indicates the number of borrowers in the United States behind on their mortgage payments is showing signs of improving
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Dear Neighbors,

Here is your Bellasera Market update for NOVEMBER, 2011. 

FOR SALE

12

- Average Asking Price

$603,316

- Average Square Feet

2,891

- Average Asking Price per Sq. Foot

$210.60

- Average Days on Market

213

- SHORT SALES – LENDER OWNED

4

PENDING

0

- Average Asking Price

0

- Average Square Feet

0

- Average Asking Price per Sq. Foot

0

- Average Days on Market

0

- SHORT SALES – LENDER OWNED

0

SOLD*

17

- Average Sales Price

$476,012

- Sales Price to List Price

95%

- Average Square Feet

2,395

- Average Sales Price per Sq. Foot

$189.42

- Average Days on Market

137

- Lowest Sale Price

$281,000

- Highest Sale Price

$590,000

- SHORT SALES – LENDER OWNED

5

The attached spreadsheets shows the homes that are FOR SALE by FLOORPLAN.

**We have a new listing – 7673 E. PONTEBELLA DR. – see our website for photos.**

CHART COMPARISON: BELLASERA, TERRAVITA, WINFIELD

FOR SALE /

AVG. SQ FT

PENDING/

AVG. SQ. FT

SOLD 2010 /

AVG. SQ. FT.

SOLD-SHORT SALE-LENDER OWNED

Bellasera (360 homes)

12

$210.60

0

$0

17

$189.42

5

Terravita (1,380 homes)

44

$212.21

8

$210.29

66

$186.73

11

Winfield (511 homes)

(*Includes Custom Homes)

18

$218.45

3

$187.07

24

$168.09

3

(Data from the Arizona Regional MLS (FLEXMLS) and subject to change – Information as of 11/2/11).

Overall Market:

The number of homes currently for sale in the Valley are:  19,606 - compared to October’s 19,398. We currently have 4 listings in Bellasera and have several agents who have buyers who are looking for homes.  If you are considering selling your home, please contact us for a “Market Analysis”.

Bellasera has had one home sell since August – it was our listing at 7668 E. Balao.  The summer months are slower – the season is here so we should see more activity. See attached chart on monthly sales from The Cromford Report for our zip code - 85266

Below is a chart that just includes the Zip Code of 85266:

85266 Zip Code

FOR SALE

 


193

PENDING

 


42

SOLD 2011

 


327

SOLD

SHORT SALE-

LENDER OWNED

116

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

$266.97

$171.23

$169.05

$143.74

Market Summary

See attached report – Altos Research Summary - Scottsdale

From The Cromford Report:

Trustee's deed recordings in Maricopa County for the last six months have a striking similarity to the number of foreclosures for the six months beginning in March 2008, only in reverse. Trustee's deeds, beginning March 2008 rose monthly in the following sequence: 2279, 2863, 3306, 3682, 3986 and 4237. Looking back from October 2011 we see the following sequence: 2400, 2838, 3568, 3309, 4073, and 4393. Just as the spring of 2008 was the most significant escalation of the foreclosure crisis, the fall of 2011 looks like the most significant period of declining foreclosures for Maricopa County.

Through the first 14 business days in October, there have only been 770 homes (single family plus condos) which have reverted back to the banks in Maricopa County. This is an average of 55 homes per day. Carrying these numbers forward through the end of the October, Maricopa County will probably only have 1100 homes returning to the banks. This would be the lowest monthly total since the summer of 2007.

Over the last year we've seen report after report on declining home prices in Arizona and forecasts of further declines. A 20% decline was a standard forecast.  One report in August showed Arizona http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/arizona/article as having the largest price declines in the nation. In January of 2011 we began talking about  prices being flat and "improving market conditions" which we believed would eventually lead to home prices increasing. A funny thing is going to happen when 2011 ends. After all the negative talk about declining prices throughout the year, there is a very strong probability the median sales price will actually increase year over year. The median sales price for a resale home in Maricopa County in December 2010 was $115,000. Today, the median priced home sells for $117,000.

NEWS ON THE HOUSING MARKET: (check out our website for “Housing Update”)

Go to:  www.joanwallacehomes.com or www.stevewallacehomes.com

Homeownership Rate Second Highest on Record
The homeownership rate is at its second-highest level on record, only behind the record high set in 2000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, which began collecting home ownership data in 1890.

Read more ...

NAHB, October 26 - New-Home Sales Rise 5.7 Percent in September
Sales of newly built, single-family homes rose 5.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 313,000 units in September, according to newly released data from the U.S. Commerce Department. This marks the fastest pace of new-home sales in the past five months.
Read more ...

DSNews.com, October 24 - Administration Announces Refinance Program for Underwater Borrowers
ItÕs official. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) unveiled a new, revamped government mortgage refinancing program Monday.
Read more ...

HousingWire, October 21 - Senate votes to extend jumbo conforming loan limits
The Senate voted 60-38 Thursday night to reinstall the elevated conforming loan limits on mortgages guaranteed by the government.
Read more ...

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Dear Neighbors,

Here is your Bellasera Market update for OCTOBER 2011. 

FOR SALE

13

- Average Asking Price

$561,607

- Average Square Feet

2,651

- Average Asking Price per Sq. Foot

$212.23

- Average Days on Market

173

- SHORT SALES – LENDER OWNED

4

PENDING

0

- Average Asking Price

0

- Average Square Feet

0

- Average Asking Price per Sq. Foot

0

- Average Days on Market

0

- SHORT SALES – LENDER OWNED

0

SOLD*

16

- Average Sales Price

$480,450

- Sales Price to List Price

96%

- Average Square Feet

2,424

- Average Sales Price per Sq. Foot

$189.12

- Average Days on Market

143

- Lowest Sale Price

$281,000

- Highest Sale Price

$590,000

- SHORT SALES – LENDER OWNED

5


CHART COMPARISON: BELLASERA, TERRAVITA, WINFIELD

FOR SALE /

AVG. SQ FT

PENDING/

AVG. SQ. FT

SOLD 2010 /

AVG. SQ. FT.

SOLD-SHORT SALE-LENDER OWNED

Bellasera (360 homes)

13

$212.23

0

$0

16

$189.12

5

Terravita (1,380 homes)

43

$217.52

6

$187.33

63

$186.32

11

Winfield (511 homes)

12

$214.84

3

$176.05

23

$166.70

3

(Data from the Arizona Regional MLS (FLEXMLS) and subject to change – Information as of 10/1/11).

Overall Market:

The number of homes currently for sale in the Valley are:  19,398 - compared to September’s 20,316.

Below is a chart that just includes the Zip Code of 85266:

85266 Zip Code

FOR SALE

 


171

PENDING

 


42

SOLD 2011

 


307

SOLD

SHORT SALE-

LENDER OWNED

108

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

$268.24

$161.69

$169.81

$146.82

Market Summary

See attached report – Altos Research Summary - Scottsdale

From The Cromford Report:

The market has remained fairly stable although it did change substantially after mid June. For the last three months sales activity has been concentrated at the bottom end of the market with the middle and top end much weaker than during the spring.

The price gap between REOs and short sales has narrowed substantially and disappeared completely for several price ranges.

We are still seeing considerable variation from day to day.

While prices for lender owned homes are on the rise, short sales and normal listings are still displaying considerable price weakness, so the overall price direction is still vague.

There have been several media stories making a big deal about increased foreclosure numbers in August. Outside Arizona, and especially in judicial foreclosure states. these may have had some significance. Inside Maricopa County, they seem to have no significance at all. The rise in completed foreclosures from July to August was small at 8% and less than the 15% increase in the number of days that the calendar gave the trustees to work.

There was a noticeable rise in foreclosure notices issued by Recontrust, the company that handles the notices for Bank of America. However the notices for other trustees were at roughly the same level as July and substantially down from 2010.

The underlying downward trend is reinforced by the month to date numbers for September. We are projecting about 4,500 new foreclosure notices during September, a drop of some 16% from August and about 2,850 trustee sales, a drop of about 21%. Part of the drop is because September has 9% fewer working days (21) than August (23). Nevertheless it still looks like the foreclosure tide is on its way out, and the inventory of bank owned homes continues to fall, as does the count of pending foreclosures.

NEWS ON THE HOUSING MARKET: (check out our website for “Housing Update”)

Go to:  www.joanwallacehomes.com or www.stevewallacehomes.com

Existing-Home Sales Jump Nearly 19% From Last Year

Sales of previously owned homes came in 18.6 percent higher last month when compared to August 2010, according to data just released by the National Association of Realtors. Completed transactions rose 7.7 percent on a month-over-month basis to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.03 million. The latest numbers far surpassed market expectations. Many analysts were forecasting a decline while others were predicting a much more modest increase, with projections for the annual rate ranging between 4.61 million and 4.80 million.

Read More ...

Realty Times, August 30 - Top Reasons to Own a Home
There's good reason that over half of all Americans are homeowners. Social and financial benefits are key factors when it comes to deciding to buy. Homeownership allows people to grow wealth slowly over time, to hold assets that build equity, and to bring stability into chaotic lives.
Read More ...

Phoenix homes hit highest August level in five years

Phoenix-area home sales hit their highest August level in five years, recording 9,657 closings in the combined Maricopa-Pinal counties. That is up 8.1% from July and 35.8% from last year, DataQuick said. Las Vegas experienced a similar trend last month, with sales jumping to a five-year high. Phoenix is the county seat...

Read More ....

Fixed-rate mortgages hit all-time low

The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage reached 4.01% for the week ending Sept. 29, the lowest ever recorded on the Freddie Mac survey. The 15-year FRM also averaged a record low 3.28% for the week. The new lows come after the Federal Reserve announced it would buy $400...

Read More ...

Forbes: Phoenix a 'Boom City' in Next Decade

According to an article by Forbes.com, Phoenix is prime for growth in the next decade. Phoenix is one of Forbes top 10 "Next Big Boom Towns."

Read More ...

Case-Shiller Puts Home Prices 4% Below a Year Ago

Even with a seasonal uptick in the month of July, home prices are falling short of their levels a year earlier, according to data just released by Standard & Poor’s. Both the 20-city and 10-city composite readings of the S&P/Case-Shiller index rose 0.9 percent between June and July, but were down 4.1 percent and 3.7 percent, respectively, when compared to July 2010. Detroit and Washington, D.C. were the only metropolitan areas in the study to buck the annual trend.

Read More ....

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Dear Neighbors,

Here is your Bellasera Market update for AUGUST 2011. 

FOR SALE

7

- Average Asking Price

$574,857

- Average Square Feet

2,551

- Average Asking Price per Sq. Foot

$224.36

- Average Days on Market

244

- SHORT SALES – LENDER OWNED

1

PENDING

1

- Average Asking Price

$389,000

- Average Square Feet

1,847

- Average Asking Price per Sq. Foot

$210.61

- Average Days on Market

66

- SHORT SALES – LENDER OWNED

1

SOLD*

15

- Average Sales Price

$486,547

- Sales Price to List Price

96%

- Average Square Feet

2,445

- Average Sales Price per Sq. Foot

$189.99

- Average Days on Market

145

- Lowest Sale Price

$281,000

- Highest Sale Price

$590,000

- SHORT SALES – LENDER OWNED

4

The attached spreadsheets shows the homes that are FOR SALE, PENDING, and SOLD by FLOORPLAN. **We have a new listing – 7685 E. BALAO DR. – see our website for photos.**

CHART COMPARISON: BELLASERA, TERRAVITA, WINFIELD

FOR SALE /

AVG. SQ FT

PENDING/

AVG. SQ. FT

SOLD 2010 /

AVG. SQ. FT.

SOLD-SHORT SALE-LENDER OWNED

Bellasera (360 homes)

7

$224.36

1      

$210.61

14

$189.99

4

Terravita (1,380 homes)

35

$217.86

10

$202.93

53

$185.64

10

Winfield (511 homes)

15

$214.14

0

$0

22

$166.06

3

(Data from the Arizona Regional MLS (FLEXMLS) and subject to change – Information as of 7/31/11).

Overall Market:

The number of homes currently for sale in the Valley are:  20,316 - compared to July’s 21,540.

Below is a chart that just includes the Zip Code of 85266:

85266 Zip Code

FOR SALE

 

 

160

PENDING

 

 

51

SOLD 2011

 

 

261

SOLD

SHORT SALE-

LENDER OWNED

89

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

$269.63

$173.37

$170.61

$146.82

Market Summary

ARMLS recorded a record amount of total homes sold for the month of June, 2011. 10,583. More than any other month in the history of our Valley.

The available inventory of homes for sale continues to drop dramatically. That gives us a market supply of only 1 3/4 months. Pending sales stay strong at 16,649 and continue to surpass the total available supply of homes.

We are in a situation where we have a very extreme shortage of inventory to sell, especially quality inventory. It is difficult to find a well priced, quality home. If you do find one, it is usually gone very quickly.

From The Cromford Report:

Are Prices Going Up or Down?

I don't think we have ever had such a confusing set of pricing data so it's not surprising that opinions on price direction are all over the map. Even the facts are all over the map, which is a much rarer condition.

I'm going to wade into the issue and try to explain what I see going on. Hopefully it will shed light rather than adding to the confusion.

Before I start, let me make it clear that market direction and price direction are not the same thing. Sometimes the market gets worse while prices rise. This happened between April 2005 and August 2007. Throughout this period the market deteriorated - supply was increasing and demand falling and although prices reached a peak in June 2006 they did not start to decline significantly until September 2007 (see here). In contrast, since November 2010, when the market was in poor shape, supply has been falling while demand has been rising, but prices have shown little to no interest in responding by moving higher.

Nevertheless the improvement in market conditions is very substantial. Let's look at some key indicators for all areas & types:

1.   The Cromford Market Index™ is higher now than at any time since October 2005.

2.   The inventory of active listings is lower now than during the buoyant market of July 2003 and a far larger proportion of the current inventory has a contingent contract than was the case in 2003.

3.   Monthly sales rates are setting new record highs.

4.   Recent contract ratios are in the low to mid 90's, the highest we have seen since September 2005.

5.   Listing success rates are approaching 75%, the highest recorded since October 2005.

6.   Pending foreclosures and REO inventories are declining faster than at any time since 2005.

7.   Foreclosures are off to a very slow start in the first week of July.

It follows that we have to treat both average and median sales prices with a good deal of caution. At the Cromford Report we tend to focus on average sales price per sq. ft. which dilutes the disproportionate effect of luxury homes a little, but certainly not completely. It also goes a long way to avoid the problems associated with medians when REOs are selling like hot cakes. However $/SF is still highly susceptible to changes in the market mix, or "blend" as Tom Ruff likes to call it. This is especially true of changes in the blend at the high end of the market.

The facts are not really to blame. We must remember that averages and medians are not only different, they are not even closely related and often move in different directions, especially over short periods like months. It is only over the long term that they tend to follow similar trends.

So where are we really?

Well from my perspective, prices aren't really going up or down much at all. They are still bumping along in essentially the same price range they have been in since October 2010. In situations like this, changes in the blend can make all the difference in whether the average or median goes up, down or stays flat. Our advice is not to pay too much attention to these movements. They will gain their rightful insignificance over time.

When a real price trend forms, we will know about it for sure, because all the price indicators will then be moving in the same direction with obvious momentum.

NEWS ON THE HOUSING MARKET: (check out our website for “Housing Update”)

Go to:  www.joanwallacehomes.com or www.stevewallacehomes.com

Phoenix Housing Market Shows Signs of Life - In June, Phoenix had the strongest resale activity in six years, helping to lift total sales from the year-ago month when federal tax credits were boosting the market.  There were about 10,500 sales of new and existing houses and condos during June in the metro area covering Maricopa and Pinal counties, up 8.3% from May and 1.5% from June of last year, according to DataQuick, the real-estate research company based in San Diego.  Read article:
http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2011/07/27/phoenix-housing-market-shows-signs-of-life/

Pending home sales rise unexpectedly 
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43927716/ns/business-real_estate/

The Arizona Republic, July 27 – Home-price index finally lines up with local realty

Data on Phoenix home prices from the monthly New York-based S&P/Case-Shiller’s Home Price index isn’t usually very popular with Arizona real-estate market watchers, mostly because it lags local data and often shows much bigger declines in values than local data.

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/2011/07/27/20110727biz-catherine0727.html

DSNews.com, July 18 – Housing Market Expected to Follow Overall Economy

Home sales are expected to outpace 2010 sales by 3 to 5 percent for the remainder of 2011 as the housing market follows the overall economy, according to Freddie Mac. Freddie Mac’s U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook for July, released Monday, suggests the housing market is not likely to see a full “double dip.”

http://www.dsnews.com/articles/housing-market-expected-to-follow-overall-economy-2011-07-18

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FOR SALE

7

- Average Asking Price

$610,928

- Average Square Feet

2,709

- Average Asking Price per Sq. Foot

$225.30

- Average Days on Market

218

- SHORT SALES – LENDER OWNED

1

PENDING

1

- Average Asking Price

$389,000

- Average Square Feet

1,847

- Average Asking Price per Sq. Foot

$210.61

- Average Days on Market

66

- SHORT SALES – LENDER OWNED

1

SOLD*

14

- Average Sales Price

$454.393

- Sales Price to List Price

95%

- Average Square Feet

2,419

- Average Sales Price per Sq. Foot

$188.98

- Average Days on Market

154

- Lowest Sale Price

$281,000

- Highest Sale Price

$590,000

- SHORT SALES – LENDER OWNED

4

The attached spreadsheets shows the homes that are FOR SALE, PENDING, and SOLD by FLOORPLAN.

CHART COMPARISON: BELLASERA, TERRAVITA, WINFIELD

FOR SALE /

AVG. SQ FT

PENDING/

AVG. SQ. FT

SOLD 2010 /

AVG. SQ. FT.

SOLD-SHORT SALE-LENDER OWNED

Bellasera (360 homes)

7

$225.30

1      

$210.61

14

$188.98

4

Terravita (1,380 homes)

41

$217.07

15

$191.58

44

$188.18

7

Winfield (511 homes)

11

$220.99

2

$142.62

20

$168.47

2

(Data from the Arizona Regional MLS (FLEXMLS) and subject to change – Information as of 4/16/11).

Overall Market:

The number of homes currently for sale in the Valley are:  21,540 compared to April’s 28,723!

Below is a chart that just includes the Zip Code of 85266:

85266 Zip Code

FOR SALE

165

PENDING

61

SOLD 2011

228

SOLD

SHORT SALE-

LENDER OWNED

69

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

$241.06

$172.51

$172.16

$148.23

Market Summary (from The Cromford Report)

Market Summary for the Beginning of June

It feels almost like the inverse of 2005.

In the second half of 2005, supply rose dramatically but no-one seemed to take any notice. There was a widely believed myth that prices could never go down. Between March 31, 2005 and June 30, 2006, active listings rose from 8,394 to 45,729 (up 445%) creating a huge glut of homes for sale. Yet average sales prices continued to rise throughout this period, up 28.6% from $146.98 to $189.05 per sq. ft.

Meanwhile demand fell 16.5%, with sales per month dropping from 8,490 to 7,093. It was as if everyone believed the laws of supply and demand no longer applied. Of course we found out by 2007 that supply and demand really did matter and the bubble burst explosively in 2008 causing untold damage to the economy and family finances.

It's a question of timing. Supply and demand do control pricing, but in real estate there is a very long time delay between cause and effect. That timing can be extended even further by sentiment. In 2005 sentiment was off-the-charts positive - "irrational exuberance" ruled the roost and caused people to make decisions that in hindsight look crazy. Not just homeowners and developers, but especially lenders and the investors who fueled the credit surplus. Those few of us who tried to warn people in early 2006 that prices would fall dramatically were treated a bit like Harold Camping predicting the end times.

The opposite seems to be happening now. Sentiment is very negative. Everyone seems convinced that prices can only fall further, yet demand is rising and supply has been falling like a rock dropped off a cliff for 6 months now. It comes down to one simple fact: people believe what they want to believe. The facts do not exert a significant influence.

Here at the Cromford Report, we only deal with facts and figures, not beliefs, so here is the market update.

Sales - We are currently recording 9,814 sales in May. This is up 3.5% over April and up 10% over May 2010. This is a very strong sales total because in May 2011 sales are not being boosted by the government bribe (sorry, tax credit) that applied in 2010 for buyers of owner-occupied homes.

Pending Sales - At 13,268 on June 1, pending sales are down 0.4% compared with May 1 but up 6.7% compared with June 1, 2010. Again an extremely strong indicator of demand. In 2010 demand fell sharply during the summer after the tax credit expired, but there is no sign so far that the same will happen in 2011.

Active Listings - At 31,346 on June 1, active listings are 9.4% below May 1 and 23.3% below June 1, 2010. Supply is clearly falling fast. However this understates the situation because a large proportion of the active listings already have a contract against them. In fact there were 7,737 AWC (active with contingent contract) listings as of June 1, 2.6% higher than the very high level we saw on June 1, 2010. If we exclude these AWC listings, we have only 23,609 active listings, down 12.7% in a month and down 28.8% compared with last year. This is almost 60% down from the peak of October 2007.

Supply Versus Demand - The average months supply (active listings divided by monthly sales rate) for the period Jan 1, 2001 to June 1, 2011 is 5.9 months. Right now we have a 3.2 month supply. Yet we read everywhere that there is a "glut of foreclosed home on the market". What we are reading may have been true in November last year. It is not true now. In fact available supply is really even tighter than this. If we only count active listings that don't have a contract the months supply number drops to just 2.4 months. Anyone who thinks this is a "glut" is not living in the real world. They should just ask anyone who is actually trying to buy a home right now. Competition is intense, and not just for bank-owned homes and trustee sales. It is also heating up for short sales and normal listings. If you are trying to buy a home that is at all desirable and is priced at market or below, expect multiple bids. If you are a seller, then you only need to price realistically and your home will sell quickly.

(All the above numeric information is for "all areas & types" within ARMLS.)

Records Being Set

In Maricopa County, May saw the largest ever number of distressed homes disappear from inventory. Pending foreclosures fell by 3,394 homes while REO inventory fell by 971 residential properties.

For Maricopa County, May gave us the highest ever percentage of out-of-state buyers. 29.9% of sales went to non-Arizona residents. The average between January 1999 and May 2011 was 11.9%. The absolute count was also a record - 2,648 homes sold to out-of-state buyers. The average since Jan 1999 is 1,446.

For Maricopa County, May saw the highest ever number of foreclosures selling direct to third parties at the courthouse steps. The record set was 1,476, 33% of all the trustee sales.

Paradise Valley

Exceptionally strong market activity is occurring in Paradise Valley where sales are now averaging 52 per month compared with 31 last year at this time. Inventory is down to 319 from a peak of 581 in April 2009 when sales were averaging only 9 per month.

Prices

After a bump upwards between mid April and mid May, average sales price per sq. ft. is back down a little at the beginning of June. Although we are still some 2% to 3% above the market bottom in January and February this year, in most places prices have not yet responded to the huge changes in supply and demand. Why not? Please refer to what happened in 2005, but with everything upside down. The rules of supply and demand have not been lifted. Of course, you don't have to believe me, but please don't say I didn't warn you.

NEWS ON THE HOUSING MARKET: (check out our website for “Housing Update”)

Go to:  www.joanwallacehomes.com or www.stevewallacehomes.com

Experts offer varied housing outlooks - Housing-market watchers are searching for signs Phoenix's five-year housing downturn is near an end.  Several reports show the market improving, and prices inching up this year.  Data from Phoenix groups the Cromford Report and the Information Market:
- Home sales were up 3.5% in May over April.
- Pending sales are almost flat in May from April, signaling June could be another good month.
- Listings continue to fall and are down almost 10% from May.
Read article:
http://www.azcentral.com/business/realestate/articles/2011/06/21/20110621catherine-reagor-phoenix-experts-offer-varied-housing-outlooks.html

Contracts to buy homes rose sharply in May
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43576690/ns/business-personal_finance/

Mortgage Firms Easing Standards
http://www.realtor.org/RMODaily.nsf/pages/News2011062804

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