Dear Neighbors,

Here is your Bellasera Market update for AUGUST 2011. 

FOR SALE

7

- Average Asking Price

$574,857

- Average Square Feet

2,551

- Average Asking Price per Sq. Foot

$224.36

- Average Days on Market

244

- SHORT SALES – LENDER OWNED

1

PENDING

1

- Average Asking Price

$389,000

- Average Square Feet

1,847

- Average Asking Price per Sq. Foot

$210.61

- Average Days on Market

66

- SHORT SALES – LENDER OWNED

1

SOLD*

15

- Average Sales Price

$486,547

- Sales Price to List Price

96%

- Average Square Feet

2,445

- Average Sales Price per Sq. Foot

$189.99

- Average Days on Market

145

- Lowest Sale Price

$281,000

- Highest Sale Price

$590,000

- SHORT SALES – LENDER OWNED

4

The attached spreadsheets shows the homes that are FOR SALE, PENDING, and SOLD by FLOORPLAN. **We have a new listing – 7685 E. BALAO DR. – see our website for photos.**

CHART COMPARISON: BELLASERA, TERRAVITA, WINFIELD

FOR SALE /

AVG. SQ FT

PENDING/

AVG. SQ. FT

SOLD 2010 /

AVG. SQ. FT.

SOLD-SHORT SALE-LENDER OWNED

Bellasera (360 homes)

7

$224.36

1      

$210.61

14

$189.99

4

Terravita (1,380 homes)

35

$217.86

10

$202.93

53

$185.64

10

Winfield (511 homes)

15

$214.14

0

$0

22

$166.06

3

(Data from the Arizona Regional MLS (FLEXMLS) and subject to change – Information as of 7/31/11).

Overall Market:

The number of homes currently for sale in the Valley are:  20,316 - compared to July’s 21,540.

Below is a chart that just includes the Zip Code of 85266:

85266 Zip Code

FOR SALE

 

 

160

PENDING

 

 

51

SOLD 2011

 

 

261

SOLD

SHORT SALE-

LENDER OWNED

89

Average Price Per Sq. Ft.

$269.63

$173.37

$170.61

$146.82

Market Summary

ARMLS recorded a record amount of total homes sold for the month of June, 2011. 10,583. More than any other month in the history of our Valley.

The available inventory of homes for sale continues to drop dramatically. That gives us a market supply of only 1 3/4 months. Pending sales stay strong at 16,649 and continue to surpass the total available supply of homes.

We are in a situation where we have a very extreme shortage of inventory to sell, especially quality inventory. It is difficult to find a well priced, quality home. If you do find one, it is usually gone very quickly.

From The Cromford Report:

Are Prices Going Up or Down?

I don't think we have ever had such a confusing set of pricing data so it's not surprising that opinions on price direction are all over the map. Even the facts are all over the map, which is a much rarer condition.

I'm going to wade into the issue and try to explain what I see going on. Hopefully it will shed light rather than adding to the confusion.

Before I start, let me make it clear that market direction and price direction are not the same thing. Sometimes the market gets worse while prices rise. This happened between April 2005 and August 2007. Throughout this period the market deteriorated - supply was increasing and demand falling and although prices reached a peak in June 2006 they did not start to decline significantly until September 2007 (see here). In contrast, since November 2010, when the market was in poor shape, supply has been falling while demand has been rising, but prices have shown little to no interest in responding by moving higher.

Nevertheless the improvement in market conditions is very substantial. Let's look at some key indicators for all areas & types:

1.   The Cromford Market Index™ is higher now than at any time since October 2005.

2.   The inventory of active listings is lower now than during the buoyant market of July 2003 and a far larger proportion of the current inventory has a contingent contract than was the case in 2003.

3.   Monthly sales rates are setting new record highs.

4.   Recent contract ratios are in the low to mid 90's, the highest we have seen since September 2005.

5.   Listing success rates are approaching 75%, the highest recorded since October 2005.

6.   Pending foreclosures and REO inventories are declining faster than at any time since 2005.

7.   Foreclosures are off to a very slow start in the first week of July.

It follows that we have to treat both average and median sales prices with a good deal of caution. At the Cromford Report we tend to focus on average sales price per sq. ft. which dilutes the disproportionate effect of luxury homes a little, but certainly not completely. It also goes a long way to avoid the problems associated with medians when REOs are selling like hot cakes. However $/SF is still highly susceptible to changes in the market mix, or "blend" as Tom Ruff likes to call it. This is especially true of changes in the blend at the high end of the market.

The facts are not really to blame. We must remember that averages and medians are not only different, they are not even closely related and often move in different directions, especially over short periods like months. It is only over the long term that they tend to follow similar trends.

So where are we really?

Well from my perspective, prices aren't really going up or down much at all. They are still bumping along in essentially the same price range they have been in since October 2010. In situations like this, changes in the blend can make all the difference in whether the average or median goes up, down or stays flat. Our advice is not to pay too much attention to these movements. They will gain their rightful insignificance over time.

When a real price trend forms, we will know about it for sure, because all the price indicators will then be moving in the same direction with obvious momentum.

NEWS ON THE HOUSING MARKET: (check out our website for “Housing Update”)

Go to:  www.joanwallacehomes.com or www.stevewallacehomes.com

Phoenix Housing Market Shows Signs of Life - In June, Phoenix had the strongest resale activity in six years, helping to lift total sales from the year-ago month when federal tax credits were boosting the market.  There were about 10,500 sales of new and existing houses and condos during June in the metro area covering Maricopa and Pinal counties, up 8.3% from May and 1.5% from June of last year, according to DataQuick, the real-estate research company based in San Diego.  Read article:
http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2011/07/27/phoenix-housing-market-shows-signs-of-life/

Pending home sales rise unexpectedly 
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43927716/ns/business-real_estate/

The Arizona Republic, July 27 – Home-price index finally lines up with local realty

Data on Phoenix home prices from the monthly New York-based S&P/Case-Shiller’s Home Price index isn’t usually very popular with Arizona real-estate market watchers, mostly because it lags local data and often shows much bigger declines in values than local data.

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/2011/07/27/20110727biz-catherine0727.html

DSNews.com, July 18 – Housing Market Expected to Follow Overall Economy

Home sales are expected to outpace 2010 sales by 3 to 5 percent for the remainder of 2011 as the housing market follows the overall economy, according to Freddie Mac. Freddie Mac’s U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook for July, released Monday, suggests the housing market is not likely to see a full “double dip.”

http://www.dsnews.com/articles/housing-market-expected-to-follow-overall-economy-2011-07-18

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